New Jersey environmental officials are overhauling their approach to how climate modeling informs construction requirements to account for rising sea levels. The new rules, which would need to be signed by Gov. Phil Murphy, would require some homes to be built 5 feet above flood levels – a move environmentalists are praising as forward-thinking. But some in the business community and real estate industry argue that the changes go too far and are calling on Murphy not to sign them.
For years, the state has relied on outdated methods to predict flooding and other natural disasters, said Jennifer Coffey, the executive director of the nonprofit Association of New Jersey Environmental Commissions.
“We have looked at historical data ranging from 1899 – so 20 years before women got the right to vote – to 1999 to determine what a 100-year storm looks like, what a 100-year flood looks like,” Coffey said.
But the past is no longer an accurate predictor on a rapidly warming planet.
That’s why the NJ Department of Environmental Protection said it’s developing a sweeping overhaul of the state’s land use rules. The latest science based on future climate modeling shows a 17% chance that sea level rise in the region will exceed 5 feet by 2100. The agency’s proposal to raise new and newly renovated homes 5 feet higher would apply to certain flood zones along the coast and near tidal rivers to avoid catastrophic damage and risk to human life.
Anyone who builds in a coastal flood zone in New Jersey is already currently required to build up to 3 feet above FEMA’s flood elevation levels. Some home builders have said that adding another 5 feet will require them to elevate homes by constructing taller concrete foundations or putting homes on stilts.
Coffey said the new rules would mark the first time the state is using “future climate modeling” to help determine land use regulations. If Murphy signs off on the changes by the August 2025 deadline, they’d take effect next year.
But the proposal is causing alarm among some real estate developers and business leaders who say a 17% chance that sea levels will reach five feet isn’t enough certainty to merit such a big policy shift.
“If [DEP] said we’re going to add another foot or two, we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation. But to say 5 feet, I just think it’s ridiculous,” said Anthony Zarilli, a third-generation builder on the Jersey Shore who said he primarily builds in the type of flood zones that would be affected by the new rules.
Builders, statewide business groups, and local and state politicians have expressed concerns about additional construction costs. They’re urging Murphy not to sign off on the change and instead limit the regulation to 2 feet. Murphy’s office declined to comment on the rule change. Before he makes his decision, DEP will review all comments submitted by builders and others during the public comment period, which ended in November.
“Our recommendation to the governor and to DEP, pull this back, start again,” said Ray Cantor, deputy chief governmental affairs officer for the New Jersey Business and Industry Association, a trade organization whose members include residential and commercial builders and developers. He added that if 2 feet turns out to be too low, “we have 75 years to adjust.”
Climate activists in the state say that paring back the new rules would be a mistake. Ed Potosnak, the executive director for the New Jersey League of Conservation Voters, said the 5-feet rule is “probably not aggressive enough.”
“New Jersey is the most densely populated state. We’ve got a lot of people in harm’s way. We should not be building today that puts more people at risk for future floods that we know are coming,” said Potosnak, who’s also the deputy mayor for Franklin Township and a licensed contractor.
The latest science
The state based the new land use rules on a 2019 Rutgers University study on rising sea levels that one of its authors, Robert Kopp, said is backed by a more recent International Panel on Climate Change study that reached a similar conclusion in 2023.
New Jersey has already seen a higher rate of sea level rise compared to the global average, Kopp said, not only because of melting ice caps, but also because the land in the region is sinking.
“From 1911 to 2019, sea level along the Jersey coast rose by about 1.5 feet, compared to about an 8 inches global rise over the same period,” he said. “If you zoom in to the last 40 years, you see 8 inches of rise [in New Jersey], which is about twice the global average.”
He said the argument over whether to raise the height rules by only 2 feet is a question of how far into the future people are willing to value the safety of future generations.
The state has faced increasingly deadly storms over the past several decades that have decimated hundreds of homes, such as Hurricane Floyd, Ida, and Superstorm Sandy.
Superstorm Sandy hit Dan Bachalis’ home in Margate, New Jersey in 2012. He said the nearly 2 feet of water that inundated the first floor did thousands of dollars worth of damage that took months to repair.
Even after he and his wife cleaned up, Bachalis said they almost had to sell the house when their flood insurance premium rose to around $13,000.
It took nearly 10 years, but in 2021 Bachalis said he finally got a FEMA grant that helped pay to raise the home over five feet off the ground. Now, he says the neighborhood floods two or three times a year but his home hasn’t taken on any water and his flood insurance is back down to less than $600 a year.
Bachalis, who is also the chair of the Hammonton, New Jersey Environmental Commission, said they would’ve been “just fine” if their home had been raised prior to Sandy.
“We would’ve been sitting up, high and dry,” he said.