New York City tops the list of big cities in the United States by population but ranks second-to-last for its voter turnout rate in the most recent presidential election — beating only El Paso, Texas.
A new report out of the University of California San Diego compared presidential and mayoral election turnout in the 50 biggest cities in the country. At 54%, New York City’s bottom-of-the-barrel turnout for the 2024 presidential election was still more than double its voter turnout rate in the 2021 mayoral contest. Only 23% of eligible New Yorkers cast their votes for mayor three years ago.
“It’s not just that there’s exceptionally low turnout in local elections,” said Zoltan Hajnal, a political scientist who coauthored the report. “But it’s that that turnout is also exceptionally skewed.”
The analysis focuses on the role of election timing, which is the subject of an ongoing debate in New York. Policymakers at the state and local level are considering a constitutional amendment to shift New York City’s local elections — which are currently scheduled on odd years — to coincide with higher-turnout federal elections on even years.
New York’s dramatic drop in turnout between presidential and mayoral years is part of a broader trend. The report found that on average, big city voter turnout declines 30% between presidential and mayoral elections. Local participation is significantly higher in cities where local elections are aligned with presidential elections.
Because of this widespread drop-off, New York’s voter turnout ranking in the most recent mayoral election is far higher than in the recent presidential election. The city came in 37th, between Memphis and Nashville. But the competition overall was weaker: Mayoral election turnout went as low as 7% in Dallas.
The report found that local elections held in the opposing odd years are dominated by “homeowners, wealthier people and older people.” By comparison, cities that switched their mayoral elections to align with presidential elections saw dramatic increases in overall voter participation in their local elections.
Some big cities have seen success in switching their election schedules. San Francisco held its first on-cycle mayoral election in November and turnout almost doubled: 79% of eligible voters participated, compared to 42% in 2019. Participation rates in previous off-cycle mayoral elections dipped as low as 23% in 2008 and peaked at 46% in 2015.
Similarly, Phoenix recorded an average of 73% voter turnout in its last two mayoral elections that aligned with presidential election years, compared to previous off-cycle elections where participation rates averaged around 23%.
The conversation about shifting the timing of New York’s elections has gained momentum in recent years.
Last year, Gov. Kathy Hochul signed a state law shifting town and county elections to even-numbered years. But a group of Republican elected officials challenged the law, and a lower court judge near Syracuse threw it out in October. The New York state attorney general’s office filed a notice of appeal in the case last month.
Despite making gains in November, state Republicans remain steadfastly opposed to changing the timing of elections anywhere in New York state, chalking it up to a power grab among Democrats in a traditionally blue state.
“The issues decided in local elections affect New Yorkers’ day-to-day lives,” said David Laska, a spokesperson for the state Republican Party. “And they deserve the full attention of voters, free from the avalanche of national spending and volume of messaging in midterm and presidential elections.”
Hajnal, the report coauthor, said he is currently studying the partisan impact of shifting from odd- to even-year elections. He said the biggest pattern to emerge so far is that it greatly increases participation among moderate or independent voters.
“You get more of those middle-of-the-road voters,” said Hajnal. “So there is a possibility that moving to on-cycle elections moderates our politics.”
On Wednesday, the New York City Council introduced a resolution urging state lawmakers to shift local elections to coincide with even-year gubernatorial elections, which align with federal midterm election cycles. The process would take at least two years, since it requires adopting a state constitutional amendment.
State Sen. James Skoufis and Assemblymember Latrice Walker introduced an amendment to move elections up in the last legislative session, but it didn’t pass. Constitutional amendments need to pass in two consecutive legislative sessions before they can be put before voters, so any future attempts to change local election years wouldn’t appear on New Yorkers’ ballots until at least 2027.
Still, proponents insist it is vital to keep pushing for this shift to improve the city’s democracy.
“We’re approaching a competitive local election with so much at stake for our city,” said Ben Weinberg, director of public policy for Citizens Union, who studied how even-year elections could boost turnout in New York. “Yet, based on recent election cycles, we’re unlikely to see turnout exceed 21%-22% next November. It’s time to adopt an election calendar that encourages New Yorkers to vote, rather than one that discourages participation,” he said.
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